New Poll Shows Blakeman Closing Gap with Hochul in NY Governor Race

New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman has narrowed in the latest Siena University poll, released Wednesday. With less than three months until Election Day, the survey indicates a tightening race, with likely voters also expressing a negative view of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).

Hochul’s Lead Shrinks

The Siena poll shows Governor Hochul leading Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, by a margin of 49% to 39% among likely New York voters. This represents a decrease from a June poll where registered voters showed Hochul with a 52% to 32% advantage. While still ahead, the shift suggests a more competitive contest than previously indicated.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted the historical context, pointing out that four years prior, in August 2022, Hochul held a 14-point lead (53%-39%) over her opponent, Lee Zeldin, before ultimately winning the election by six points. Blakeman’s campaign has consistently claimed that internal polling shows the race is much closer, with some polls indicating a virtual tie.

Blakeman Campaign Reacts

Bruce Blakeman’s campaign issued a statement asserting that the current poll, like others seen recently, is inaccurate and that the race is indeed a close contest. “We know and she knows this race is neck and neck,” Blakeman stated. He further criticized Hochul’s performance, attributing her struggles to “high taxes, soaring electric bills, and increased crime,” suggesting these factors have made her an unpopular governor.

Voter Priorities and Candidate Strengths

The Siena University poll, conducted between August 3rd and 6th among 811 likely New York voters, carries a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. While the overall lead has tightened, the poll revealed voter preferences on specific issues.

Likely voters believe Hochul would perform better than Blakeman on making prices more affordable (48% to 41%) and increasing the supply of affordable housing (51% to 35%). However, the candidates are nearly neck-and-neck on other critical issues.

• Public Safety: Hochul holds a slight edge, with 47% believing she would do a better job keeping New Yorkers safe, compared to 44% for Blakeman.
• Undocumented Immigrants: The governor also leads narrowly on addressing undocumented immigrants, with 45% favoring her approach over Blakeman’s 44%.

Demographic Divides and Geographic Splits

The poll highlighted significant partisan and geographic divides among voters. Both candidates maintain strong support within their respective parties, with Hochul leading Democrats 80% to 8%, and Blakeman commanding Republican loyalty at 84% to 9%. Independent voters, however, lean slightly towards Blakeman, by a five-point margin (45% to 40%).

Geographically, Hochul enjoys a substantial lead in New York City, winning 64% to 19%. Conversely, Blakeman performs strongly in the downstate suburbs, leading by eight points (49% to 41%). The race is nearly even in upstate New York. The candidates also show similar performance among men and white voters. Hochul maintains significant leads among women, Latino voters, and Black voters.

Voters Weigh In on the Democratic Socialists of America

For the first time, the Siena Research Institute polled voters on their views of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). The progressive group has been increasing its political influence, with members achieving electoral victories in various races.

The poll found a generally unfavorable view of the DSA among New York likely voters, with a 30% favorability rating and a 47% unfavorability rating. This sentiment is particularly strong among Republicans (82% unfavorable) and independents (57% unfavorable). Democrats, however, view the DSA more favorably, with a 50% favorability rating compared to 21% unfavorable.

Conclusion

As the New York gubernatorial election approaches, the latest Siena poll suggests a tightening race between Governor Kathy Hochul and challenger Bruce Blakeman. While Hochul maintains leads on key economic issues and within specific demographics, Blakeman appears to be gaining ground, particularly among independent voters and in suburban areas. The poll also provides insight into voter perceptions of the DSA, revealing a divided electorate on the role of progressive political groups.