As NATO allies gear up for crucial discussions, a new report highlights concerns that Russia is leveraging its clandestine “shadow fleet” of aging vessels to probe the air defense capabilities and response times of the alliance. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) suggests these sanction-evading ships are being used as mobile platforms to launch drones over sensitive European military installations and civilian infrastructure, potentially testing NATO’s readiness and seeking to sow anxiety.
Shadow Fleet as a Drone Launchpad
The IISS report, spanning from August 2024 to February 2026, documents 144 suspected drone incidents near critical sites across Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. These incidents also extended to American air bases within the UK in November 2024. Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US Army Europe, stated his conviction that these shadow fleet vessels are instrumental in deploying various drone types closer to European nations.
The implications of these incursions are multifaceted. Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council noted that the operations appear designed to gauge official reactions, assess public responses, and potentially provoke panic or blame directed at political leaders and authorities. “They are testing perhaps to see how we as European countries or how European countries might react in a real crisis there,” she added, suggesting a broader test of European resolve during potential future crises.
Disruption and Psychological Warfare
The wave of unmanned aerial vehicle activity has occurred over airspace in more than a dozen NATO states, as well as Ireland. This has led to repeated disruptions, including the closure of major commercial airports, interference with military operations, and breaches into the perimeters of highly sensitive defense installations. In 2025, mystery drones were observed targeting military bases in the Netherlands and Belgium, locations believed to house US B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs, and near France’s ballistic-missile submarine base at Île Longue.
General Hodges elaborated on the dual nature of these actions, describing them as a combination of espionage and psychological operations. The aim, he suggested, is to generate significant anxiety among populations, pressuring governments to withdraw support for Ukraine. The Russian drone campaign seems meticulously crafted to test the response times and decision-making processes of allied air defense systems and civil-military command structures. It also seeks to identify vulnerabilities within critical infrastructure, encompassing dual-use civilian facilities, military logistics hubs supporting Ukraine, and sites integral to the Alliance’s nuclear deterrence posture.
Economic, Psychological, and Strategic Aims
Beyond probing defenses, the campaign appears intended to inflict economic and psychological costs on European societies. Disruptions to civilian aviation, erosion of public confidence in airspace security, and the fostering of distrust and panic are key objectives. Furthermore, the strategy may aim to normalize low-level airspace violations, keeping them below the threshold that would likely trigger a direct military response from NATO.
These sightings reached a peak in late 2025, forcing the temporary closure of several European airports, including those in Germany, Spain, and Denmark. Sweden stands as the sole European nation to have directly accused Moscow, following an incident where a drone launched from a Russian spy ship near the coast flew close to a French aircraft carrier. Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently denied allegations of Russian sabotage and surveillance across Europe, questioning the existence of any proven facts.
Tracking the Shadow Fleet
The IISS report meticulously tracked the movements of Russia’s shadow fleet, vessels used to circumvent international sanctions, and linked their presence to recent high-profile drone incidents. This correlation supports the conclusion that these ships serve as launch platforms for drones, while simultaneously providing a layer of plausible deniability for Moscow.
Drones, particularly smaller ones, can often evade radar detection. The report cites a specific instance on January 3, 2025, when the Russian shadow vessel ‘Arctica’ sailed along the Danish coast. Concurrently, approximately 20 drones were observed over the port of Koege, Denmark, before disappearing at sea. Earlier, on September 22, drone sightings had necessitated the closure of Copenhagen Airport. The IISS noted the presence of several shadow ships, including the ‘Arctica’ and ‘Boracay,’ in the vicinity during these events.
Transatlantic Concerns
The phenomenon is not confined to Europe. Numerous unexplained drone sightings have also occurred in the United States over the past several years. In December 2023, unauthorized aircraft were detected over Joint Base Langley-Eustis in Virginia for 17 consecutive days, evading military tracking and prompting the Pentagon to deploy specialized assets, including a NASA WB-57 high-altitude jet, for investigation. In March, drones were observed near Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, home to the B-52 H Stratofortress bomber. The pattern of these flights suggested an attempt to avoid detection of the operators, with lights on the drones indicating a possible test of base security responses.
While reports of drone sightings near critical infrastructure along the US East Coast in late 2024 led to investigations and public concern, a subsequent review under the Trump administration concluded that the majority of these sightings involved hobbyist drones, with no evidence of a foreign threat. However, the IISS report strongly suggests that the incidents in Europe are far from the actions of hobbyists, pointing towards the use of shadow vessels at sea as the most probable launch method for drones posing a threat to NATO allies.
